October auto sales: dispatches may rise even as retail fell 20–25%, says Jefferies

Jefferies sees truck registrations up 34% but cars and two-wheelers down 20–25% — a Diwali-timing story more than a demand collapse.

Jefferies' channel checks found truck registrations up an estimated 34% year-on-year in the first 27 days of October — a sign that infrastructure and freight demand remain healthy. But passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, the volume segments, saw registrations fall 20–25%, suggesting showroom footfalls were soft through the month.

The mismatch is largely about the calendar: Diwali falls on November 8 this year, compared with an earlier festival window in 2025, pushing both purchases and dealer stocking into November. Manufacturers are therefore expected to report higher wholesale dispatches for October even as retail sagged.

Analysts caution against reading the November 1 dispatch headlines as a demand signal — they measure factory-to-dealer shipments, not sales to customers. November registrations and dealer inventory days will reveal the true strength of festive demand.